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Commodities Trade Tips 18/03/2019
Commodities Trading Ideas:
–Aluminium trading range for the day is 147.6-149.2.
–Aluminium prices gained amid signs of a slower decline in alumina prices and expectations on higher consumption.
–China’s exports rebounded in March but imports shrank for a fourth straight month and at a sharper pace, painting a mixed picture of the economy.
–China’s central bank said that it would strengthen coordination between monetary, fiscal and other policies to keep growth stable and forestall risks.
–Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1478.1-1512.9.
–Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1599.10 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.4.10/-.
–Menthaoil settled up amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.
–Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices.
–However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.
Commodities Trading Ideas
–Soyabean trading range for the day is 3694-3800.
–Soyabean dropped on concern over higher availability of oilseed in the country and slowing soybean meal exports.
–India is likely to see average monsoon rains this year, the state-run weather office said, which should support agricultural production.
–Soybean production is estimated higher by 20 per cent at 136.89 lakh tonnes as compared to 113.90 lakh tonnes produced during 2017-18.
–At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped 15 Rupees to 3864 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Commodities Trading Ideas
–Ref.Soya Oil trading range for the day is 714-726.
–Ref.Soya Oil dropped due to higher stocks at port, expectation of higher imports due to low tariff value.
–Earlier pressure also seen due to bumper production outlook of soybean for India and subdued domestic buying.
–According to report, soy oil import jumped by 64.7% to 2.20 lt in February compared to 1.34 lt last year same month.
–At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 740 Rupees per 10 kgs.
#Commodities news April 18 2019
“Crude Oil hits highest level in 2019”
Brent oil prices hit a 2019 high above $72 a barrel on Wednesday, propelled by steady economic growth in China and a fall in US crude stocks which defied expectations and signalled firm demand, while global supply remained tight.
International benchmark Brent crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.28 per cent, at $71.92 in intraday trade, having hit an intraday peak of $72.27.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $64.39 per barrel, up 34 cents or 0.53% and just shy of a 2019 high of $64.79 hit last week.
China’s economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter, official data showed, defying expectations for a further slowdown and assuaging global markets as a US-China trade deal also appears near.
China’s refinery throughput was up 3.2% in March year-over-year to 12.49 million barrels per day, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Prices have been supported this year by a pact reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, to limit their oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day.source:commodityonline.com
Global supply has been tightened further by US sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran.
#Commodities news 09/04/2019
“Oil prices hover near 5-month highs as global markets tighten”
- Oil prices rose to fresh 5-month highs on Tuesday as markets tightened amid OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and escalating violence in Libya.
International benchmark Brent futures hit their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel, before easing to $71.18 per barrel by 0452 GMT, still 8 cents, or 0.1 percent, above their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.53, up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent.
Oil markets have tightened this year as the United States imposed sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela while the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been withholding supply to prop up prices.
Brent and WTI futures have risen by 40 percent and 30 percent respectively since the start of the year.
Goldman Sachs said an oil supply deficit had opened up early this year.
“We expect the drivers of this deficit to persist through 2Q19” due to a “shock and awe implementation of the OPEC cuts … further tightening of U.S. oil sanctions and an only moderate increase in shale production for now,” the U.S. bank said in a note.
Goldman said it expected Brent to average $72.50 per barrel during the second quarter, up from a previous forecast of $65 per barrel.
Prices have been further lifted this week by escalating violence in Libya, a significant supplier of oil to Europe, which produced around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March.
Eastern forces on Monday were advancing on the Libyan capital Tripoli in the latest of a cycle of warfare since Muammar Gaddafi’s fall in 2011, with a warplane attacking the city’s only functioning airport.
Yet despite generally bullish oil markets, concerns that an economic slowdown this year will hit fuel consumption have been preventing crude prices from rising even higher, traders said.
And while fears of a global recession ebbed following strong U.S. jobs figures and improved Chinese manufacturing data late last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said there was still a “significant slowing in growth globally” in 2019.
The bank said it expected Brent and WTI to average $70 per barrel and $59 per barrel respectively in 2019, and $65 per barrel and $60 per barrel in 2020.
Goldman Sachs also said oil prices “will decline gradually from this summer as shale and OPEC production increases.”
Russia, not an OPEC-member but a reluctant participant in the supply cuts, signalled on Monday it wanted to raise output when it meets with OPEC in June because of falling stockpiles.
In the United States, crude oil production has risen by more than 2 million bpd since early 2018, to a record 12.2 million bpd, with many analysts expecting output to exceed 13 million bpd soon.
“Gold prices gain as dollar loses ground after weak U.S. data”
- Gold prices rose on Tuesday, trading close to a more than one-week high touched in the previous session, as the dollar eased after weak U.S. economic data.
Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,299.59 per ounce as of 0354 GMT, after touching its highest since March 28 at $1,303.61 in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,303.30 an ounce.
“The U.S. dollar is subdued and data shows that there is continued buying from central banks,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said.
China, the world’s biggest gold consumer, raised its gold reserves by 0.6 percent to 60.62 million ounces by end-March, central bank data showed.
Turkey also raised its gold holdings in March, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.
The dollar sagged after weak U.S. economic data, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. It posted its biggest daily percentage decline since March 20 in the previous session.
Orders for U.S.-made goods fell modestly in February and the manufacturing sector is slowing amid rising inventories, data showed on Monday.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday also signalled a slowdown in wage growth and job cuts in the manufacturing sector even as employment accelerated.
“Gold’s gains in the last 24 hours were a follow-up on the jobs report from the U.S. on Friday,” said Ilya Spivak, a senior currency strategist at DailyFX.
“Decline in wage inflation takes the pressure off the Fed and lets it remain dovish and delay rate hikes and maybe switch gears, and that’s supportive for gold.”
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion and also weigh on the dollar, increasing gold’s appeal.
Market participants are now awaiting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting, due on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank meeting on the same day is also on investors’ radar.
“There is an expectation for a dovish-biased statement based on what came out in March. The larger issue is how concerned are our policy makers over the state of global economy,” Spivak said.
The U.S. Federal Reserve last month abandoned projections for any interest rate hikes this year amid signs of an economic slowdown.
Meanwhile, holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell for a sixth straight session to 760.49 tonnes on Monday.
Among other precious metals, spot platinum was down 0.1 percent at $904 per ounce, after touching its highest since end-May 2018 in the previous session.
Palladium slipped 0.5 percent to $1,376.07 an ounce, while silver gained 0.1 percent to $15.26 per ounce.source :money.rediff.com
#Commodities Trade Tips 26/03/2019
Gold prices were steady on Tuesday and hovered near one-month high hit in the previous session, as demand for safe-haven assets improved after treasury yields and equities fell on possible US recession and global growth concerns.
Spot gold was unchanged at $1,321.74 per ounce as of 0123 GMT, after touching its highest since Feb. 28 at $1,324.33 in the previous session.
US gold futures were also down 0.1 per cent at $1,320.70 an ounce.Asian shares were shaky on Tuesday after US Treasury yields sank to their lowest since late 2017, further below short-term interest rates and adding to fears of a US recession.Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since December 2017 on Monday while the yield curve inverted further as investors evaluated last week’s dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield slid back into negative territory on Monday as worries over Brexit saw investors rushing for safe haven assets, tempering the impact of a surprise rise in business sentiment which lifted yields earlier in the session.
German business morale improved unexpectedly in March after six consecutive drops, a survey showed on Monday, suggesting that Europe’s largest economy is likely to pick up in the coming months after it narrowly avoided a recession last year.
British lawmakers wrested control of the parliamentary agenda from the government for a day in a highly unusual bid to find a way through the Brexit impasse after Prime Minister Theresa May’s EU divorce deal was rejected again.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was understandable for markets to be nervous when the yield curve flattened, though he was still confident about the US economic growth outlook.
The US-China trade war poses the biggest risk to global stability and fiscal stabilisation is needed to respond to economic shocks in Europe, IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton said on Monday.(source:ndtv.com)
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#Commodities Trade Tips 25/03/2019
Gold prices surged by Rs. 170 to Rs. 33,220 per 10 gram at the bullion market on Monday reported news agency Press Trust of India (PTI) quoting the All India Sarafa Association. The prices increased on buying by local jewellers amid a firm global trend. Silver, however, remained weak and fell by another Rs. 70 to Rs. 39,200 per kg due to decreased offtake by industrial units and coin makers. Sentiment turned upbeat on the back of a pick-up in buying support from local jewellers and retailers amid positive global cues as US recession fears boosted appeal for the bullion as safe-haven asset, said the report citing traders.
Here are 5 things to know about gold, silver prices:
1. Globally, gold prices rose on Monday as investors’ appetite for riskier assets faded on concerns about a potential US recession and decelerating global growth, increasing appeal for the bullion alongside yen and bonds, reported news agency Reuters.
2. Spot gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,316.40 per ounce in intraday trade, while US gold futures also added 0.3 per cent to $1,316.50 an ounce.
3. In Delhi, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purities rose by Rs. 170 each to Rs. 33,220 and Rs. 33,050 per 10 grams, respectively. It had gained Rs. 80 on Friday.
4. Sovereign gold, however, held steady at Rs. 26,400 per piece of eight grams.
5. On the other hand, silver ready slipped by Rs. 70 to Rs. 39,200 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs. 8 to Rs. 38,364 per kg. Silver coins, however, continued to be enquirer at the previous level of Rs. 80,000 for buying and Rs. 81,000 for selling of 100 pieces.
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Gold Gains As US Recession Fears Boost Safe-Haven Assets
Gold rose on Monday as investors’ appetite for riskier assets faded on concerns about a potential US recession and decelerating global growth, increasing appeal for the bullion alongside yen and bonds.
Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $1,316.11 per ounce as of 0422 GMT, while US gold futures gained 0.3 per cent to $1,315.80 an ounce.
The metal last week posted its third consecutive weekly gain and rose 1 per cent, the most since the week ended Feb. 1.
Investors dumped shares and fled to the safety of bonds, while the Japanese yen hovered near a six-week high.
“Market is in a risk aversion mode. It seems that the data from Friday night, of US and Europe, didn’t come as expected,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.
Data on Friday showed that US manufacturing activity unexpectedly cooled in March and businesses across the euro zone performed much worse than expected this month, fanning concerns on global growth.
“If data continues to be as weak as forecast then there is very good chance we could see significant higher gold prices,” McCarthy said, adding that the inversion of yield is a sign of concern.
Yields on benchmark US 10-year treasury notes fell further below three-month rates in Asia, an inversion that has in the past signalled the risk of economic recession. The yield curve inverted on Friday for the first time since mid-2007.
Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weigh on the dollar. A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for non-US investors.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday that it is a good time for the US central bank to pause and adopt a cautious stance, adding that he did not expect any interest rate hikes until the second half of next year.
“Gold is set to make another run for the $1,350 price level that has proved resilient,” OANDA said in a note.
“Volatility fuelled by uncertainty and with plenty of Fed speakers expected to reinforce the dovish rhetoric from the central bank, the US dollar will be limited on the upside.”
Indicating appetite for the safe-haven bullion, holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, rose about 1 per cent in the previous week.
Investors also raised their bullish wagers in COMEX gold in the week to March 19, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Among other precious metals, palladium slipped 0.1 per cent to $1,563 per ounce.Silver gained 0.3 per cent to $15.46, while platinum was up 0.6 per cent at $848.78 an ounce.(source:ndtv.com)
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#Commodities Trade Tips 22/03/2019
- Mentha Oil trading range for the day is 1631-1654.2.
- Mentha Oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1719.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.3.20/-.
- Mentha Oil settled up amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.
- Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices.
- However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.
- Aluminium trading range for the day is 143.3-147.5.
- Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid decline of some 20,000 mt in social inventories of primary aluminium in China.
- There were also report that Rio Tinto suspended operations at its bauxite mine in north Australia due to a cyclone.
- China produced some 2.97 million mt of primary aluminium in January, down 0.5% from January 2018, and down 0.7% from December.
- # MCX Nickel under fresh buying; Resistance seen at 907.8
- # MCX Aluminium likely to move in a range of 133.3-136.1
- # MCX Mentha Oil under fresh selling; Support seen at 1575.6
# In fact Natural Gas showcase is getting support at 188.7 and underneath same could see a trial of 185.8 dimensions and opposition is presently prone to be seen at 193.4, a move above could see costs testing 195.2.Gaseous petrol on MCX settled up 1.86% at 191.60 picked up in the line of desire costs revived on Thursday following a bigger than anticipated attract inventories. Colder than anticipated climate is figure to cover a large portion of the US for the following 2-weeks.
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The virus climate design is moving down from Canada into the mid-west of the US and gives off an impression of being steady for both the 6-10 and 8-multi day conjectures. The decrease away dimension extends a declining direction of inventories.
The DOE revealed that working gas away was 1,705 Bcf as of Friday, February 15, 2019. This speaks to a net decline of 177 Bcf from the earlier week. Desires where for a 150 Bcf decrease as indicated by Estimize and a 168 Bcf decay as per Bloomberg.
The EIA reports that petroleum gas inventories were 73 Bcf not exactly a year ago as of now and 362 Bcf underneath the five-year normal of 2,067 Bcf. At 1,705 Bcf, the all out working gas is inside the five-year authentic range.
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